China’s birthrate dropped to a record low of 5.63 per 1,000 people in 2025, with only 7.9 million births despite ending the one-child policy a decade ago. The fertility rate has fallen to around one birth per woman, far below the 2.1 replacement level, mirroring declines in South Korea and Japan. Government subsidies and incentives have failed to reverse the trend, as high child-rearing costs and shifting cultural attitudes continue to discourage larger families, signaling deeper challenges ahead.
China’s population declined by 3.39 million people in 2025, the fourth consecutive year of shrinkage, as births fell to 7.9 million and the birth rate dropped to a record low of 5.63 per 1,000 people. Deaths numbered 11.3 million, pushing the natural growth rate to negative 2.4 per thousand.
The figures mark the lowest birth rate since 1949 and represent a 17 percent drop from the 9.54 million births recorded in 2024, erasing a brief uptick that had interrupted seven years of decline.
The National Bureau of Statistics released the data amid intense public interest, though the topic remained conspicuously absent from Weibo’s top 50 trending lists. Online discussions and articles proliferated despite apparent efforts to limit visibility, reflecting widespread concern about the nation’s demographic trajectory.
China ended its one-child policy ten years ago, hoping to reverse declining fertility. Since then, the government has introduced multiple initiatives, including a $500 annual subsidy for families with children under three and the removal of tax exemptions for contraceptives. These measures have proven insufficient against the high costs of raising children in modern China. Demographic expert Yi Fuxian notes that child-rearing expenses far outweigh government aid, and that the legacy of the one-child policy continues to shape attitudes and behavior. The one-child policy’s enforcement included forced sterilizations and abortions, methods that contributed to dramatically reshaping generational views on family size.
The current birth total roughly matches levels from 1738, when China’s population stood at just 150 million, compared to 1.405 billion today. With deaths rising from 10.93 million in 2024, the nation faces an aging crisis similar to Japan’s, though China’s decline is accelerating faster and follows decades of enforced population control that Japan never experienced.
China now holds the world’s second-largest population after India. The government’s efforts mirror Japan’s larger subsidies, which have also failed to reverse demographic decline. China’s fertility level around 1 birth per woman falls far below the replacement rate of 2.1, placing it alongside other East Asian economies like South Korea, Taiwan, and Singapore with similarly low rates.
While policymakers continue exploring solutions, the combination of economic pressures, shifting cultural norms, and the lingering psychological effects of population restrictions presents an uphill battle. The 2025 figures suggest that reversing this trend will require more than financial incentives alone. A consideration of stewardship and priorities may be necessary when designing policies that balance economic incentives, social support, and long-term family planning.
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