The 2023 Cooperative Election Study reported 21% of Gen Z identifying as Catholic versus 19% Protestant, a finding researchers quickly flagged as a statistical outlier. Religion expert Ryan Burge noted the seven-point jump far exceeded typical variation, while Pew data maintained a traditional two-to-one Protestant advantage among young adults. Multiple surveys suggest Gen Z Catholics remain around 14–16%, with net outflows through switching. The claim reflects data irregularities rather than genuine demographic reversal, though Catholic retention patterns amid broader secularization reveal nuances worth closer examination.
A surprising claim emerged from the 2023 Cooperative Election Study: for the first time in American history, Gen Z Catholics may have edged past their Protestant peers, with 21 percent identifying as Catholic compared to 19 percent Protestant. This dramatic uptick from 15 percent Catholic in 2022 would reverse centuries of Protestant numerical dominance in America. Yet experts remain deeply skeptical of the finding. Prayerful trust in long-term trends encourages caution when interpreting one anomalous year of data.
Ryan Burge, a political scientist who tracks religious trends, flagged the 2023 CES data as aberrant. The seven-point jump among Gen Z Catholics and the simultaneous leap from 16 to 20 percent among Millennial Catholics far exceed typical year-to-year variation, particularly when older generations remained stable within one or two points. Such volatility raises questions about sampling or methodology rather than reflecting genuine demographic shifts.
The seven-point jump among Gen Z Catholics far exceeds typical year-to-year variation, raising questions about sampling or methodology.
Pew Research Center paints a different picture. Their Religious Landscape Study found 28 percent of the youngest adults identify as Protestant and only 14 percent as Catholic, maintaining the traditional two-to-one Protestant advantage. Among those born between 2000 and 2006, Protestants still outnumber Catholics by this same margin. Additionally, 12 percent switched out of Catholicism among young adults aged 18-24, while only 1 percent switched into the faith, indicating a net outflow rather than growth.
These findings align with historical patterns showing steady Catholic decline across generations, from 23 percent among the Silent Generation to 15 percent among Gen Z in 2022.
The true range for Gen Z Catholics likely falls between 14 and 16 percent based on broader survey data, suggesting the CES figure is inflated. No prior generation has witnessed Catholics surpassing Protestants, making such a sudden reversal implausible. The Cooperative Election Study, while the largest U.S. population study tracking religion and politics and linked to Harvard research, appears to have produced an outlier in 2023.
Still, some dynamics merit attention. Young Catholics who remain engaged show higher rates of Mass attendance and sacramental participation than their elders. Catholic retention holds steady at 59 percent among those raised in the faith. Meanwhile, mainline Protestant denominations face accelerating youth losses, with the religiously unaffiliated rising disproportionately from Protestant backgrounds. Similar patterns have emerged internationally, with Anglican identification declining sharply among 18-24 year-olds in the UK while Catholic shares remain comparatively higher.
While Gen Z Catholics have not overtaken Protestants numerically, their relative stability amid widespread secularization represents a quiet shift worth monitoring.
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